Delays in Systems Explained

What has been corrected on this page?

Every accepted correction to this page is recorded with the exact change, so readers can see how the page improved over time.

1. 28 July 2026 · corrected by Emir Baycan

   Qualified or corrected six overstated statistics: reframed Wiener's control-theory result about delay-induced oscillation without the overly precise 'greater than half the natural period' universal rule; presented Forrester's 20-40% inventory-oscillation figure as illustrative model output dependent on assumptions;

   softened Sterman's 'virtually all players' to 'the great majority'; qualified the P&G/CPFR '30% cost reduction' and '8-12 weeks' figures as commonly cited estimates; replaced a specific 0.73 correlation (which could not be verified) with the accurate general finding that delay misperception strongly relates to oscillation size;

   and removed an unverifiable 2003 Trivedi Journal of Clinical Psychiatry '35% prescribing error' citation while keeping the valid clinical caution about early antidepressant dose escalation.

   What the page claimed

   The article stated Wiener's half-natural-period oscillation rule, a fixed 20-40% Forrester oscillation figure, that virtually all Beer Game players show the bullwhip, a P&G 8-12-week / 30%-cost / CPFR result, a Sterman 0.73 correlation across 192 teams, and a Trivedi 2003 35% prescribing-error figure.

   What was corrected

   Qualified the control-theory and model figures, softened the universal-player claim, framed the P&G figures as estimates, generalized the unverifiable 0.73 correlation, and removed the unverifiable Trivedi citation while retaining the clinical point.

   Why: Several precise figures and the Trivedi citation could not be verified and were stated too definitively. Corrections scope the claims to what the sources support rather than adding new sources.

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