What Is a Mental Model and How to Build a Better Toolkit

What has been corrected on this page?

Every accepted correction to this page is recorded with the exact change, so readers can see how the page improved over time.

1. 28 July 2026 · corrected by Emir Baycan

   Corrected nine attribution and overstatement issues: re-attributed the 28,000-predictions / 284-experts / two-decades forecasting result to Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment (2005) rather than Superforecasting (2015); qualified Klein's premortem '30 percent' figure as illustrative; corrected the Dunning-Kruger characterization (primarily low performers overestimating, with the top-performer underestimation part more debated and partly a regression artifact); softened 'superforecasters update three times as often' to a general tendency; framed SpaceX's '5-10x lower' manufacturing cost as Musk's own public claim rather than an audited figure; softened Forrester's 'dozens of cases' and 'consistently produced opposite effects' to a described pattern; qualified the Nordgren decision-journal claim; and softened Eisenhardt's high-velocity-decision findings from proof of an executive latticework to what her studies actually reported.

   What the page claimed

   The article attributed the forecasting study to Superforecasting 2015, gave a 30% premortem figure, said genuine experts underestimate competence per Dunning-Kruger, said superforecasters update three times as often, gave a 5-10x SpaceX cost figure, said Forrester documented dozens of opposite-effect cases, and presented Nordgren and Eisenhardt as proving diverse-model and latticework claims.

   What was corrected

   Re-attributed and qualified each to the primary record: Expert Political Judgment 2005 for the forecasting numbers, illustrative framing for the premortem figure, the debated status of the Dunning-Kruger below-average effect, Musk's own account for the SpaceX figure, and softened causal language for Forrester, Nordgren, and Eisenhardt.

   Why: The sources are genuine but were mis-attributed or overstated. Corrections fix the citation and scope the claims to what the studies support rather than adding new sources.

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2. 12 July 2026 · corrected by Emir Baycan

   Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment study was ~28,000 forecasts from 284 experts

   Before

   Tetlock's study tracked 20,000 predictions from 300 experts over two decades

   After

   Tetlock's study tracked approximately 28,000 predictions from 284 experts over two decades

   Why: Verified fix already fully applied in article body (no secondary leftovers found in headings, references, or FAQ). Body text correctly reads 'approximately 28,000 predictions from 284 experts' matching Tetlock's Expert Political Judgment study.

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1 contributor has checked "What Is a Mental Model and How to Build a Better Toolkit" on When Notes Fly. Each name below links to that person's public CitePep profile, where every contribution they have made is listed with the exact change they proposed.