Making Informed Decisions in Uncertain Situations
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Making Informed Decisions in Uncertain Situations

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Most critical decisions occur amid uncertainty; explore expected value thinking and techniques like pre-mortems and base rate analysis.

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  1. 11 July 2026 · corrected by Emir Baycan

    The sleep-deprivation-equals-alcohol-intoxication finding comes from Dawson & Reid (1997) and Williamson & Feyer (2000), not Harrison & Horne in Neuropsychologia.

    Before

    Studies by Harrison and Horne (2000, Neuropsychologia) found that 24 hours without sleep produced decision-making impairments comparable to legal blood alcohol intoxication.

    After

    Studies by Dawson and Reid (1997, Nature) and Williamson and Feyer (2000, Occupational and Environmental Medicine) found that 24 hours without sleep produced decision-making impairments comparable to legal blood alcohol intoxication.

    Why: Verified live: body already correctly cites Dawson and Reid (1997, Nature) and Williamson and Feyer (2000, Occupational and Environmental Medicine). FAQ does not reference this finding. No further action needed.

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Emir BaycanExpert Contributor