Accurate Predictions Using Reference Class Forecasting

What has been corrected on this page?

Every accepted correction to this page is recorded with the exact change, so readers can see how the page improved over time.

1. 28 July 2026 · corrected by Emir Baycan

   Softened one overstated claim: 'the primary empirically validated method for correcting the planning fallacy' to 'one of the more empirically supported methods,' since reference class forecasting is a well-regarded but not uniquely dominant debiasing approach. Kahneman's 1976 curriculum-project anecdote and the UK Treasury Green Book's formal adoption of reference class forecasting were verified accurate and left in place.

   What the page claimed

   The article described reference class forecasting as the primary empirically validated method for correcting the planning fallacy, implying it is uniquely dominant among debiasing methods.

   What was corrected

   Softened the claim to describe it as one of the more empirically supported methods rather than the primary one.

   Why: The claim overstated the method's uniqueness relative to other debiasing approaches. Correction adds the appropriate qualification rather than adding new sources.

   View the full record →

Who checked this page?

1 contributor has checked "Accurate Predictions Using Reference Class Forecasting" on When Notes Fly. Each name below links to that person's public CitePep profile, where every contribution they have made is listed with the exact change they proposed.