Mental Models That Make Every Decision Sharper
Correction Concepts

Mental Models That Make Every Decision Sharper

Corrected by Emir Baycan · on When Notes Fly · 28 July 2026 · View published page ↗

Second-order thinking, inversion, and first principles expose what you're missing. The right mental model turns a hard decision into an obvious one.

Factually incorrectNeeds stronger evidence

What was corrected

What the page claimed

The article cited a Berk-van Binsbergen 2016 JFE 10-15% skill finding, a Fresard 2019 consistent-framework result, an Ericsson-Whyte-Ward 2007 diagnostic-accuracy study, a fixed 5-10x engineering safety factor, and practitioner cases proving mental models caused performance.

What was corrected

Fixed the Berk-van Binsbergen citation and finding, generalized the unverifiable Fresard and Ericsson results, corrected the safety-factor figure, and framed practitioner cases as illustrations.

Why this is better

Several citations named the wrong year/journal or a study that could not be verified, and the safety-factor figure was wrong. Corrections fix the citations and figures and scope the claims rather than adding new sources.

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