An Introduction to Second-Order Thinking and Its Examples
Examine second-order thinking to anticipate the consequences of decisions beyond immediate effects.
What was corrected
Article misattributed a real, correct statistic to the wrong source and year, and overstated the speed of a well-documented market event's recovery.
Corrected the antibiotic-resistance statistic's attribution to the real Lancet/GRAM source and year; corrected the Flash Crash recovery timeframe to approximately 30 minutes.
Why this is better
Philip Tetlock's real forecasting research (82,000 predictions, 284 experts, 20 years) verified as fully accurate; the historical case studies (Green Revolution, Sarbanes-Oxley, ACA, Amazon Marketplace, Facebook News Feed) all checked out as directionally accurate, with only minor imprecision in some figures like SOX compliance costs, which vary widely across real studies and were left as a reasonable order-of-magnitude estimate rather than unverified.